Election Atlas

Demographic estimates · county → block group

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How to read this map

These are aggregate demographic model estimates, not observed individual votes. All voters sums every demographic. County colors use summed block-group counts.

Margin is the difference between Democratic and Republican votes, as a percentage of all valid votes, including Other. Positive margins favor Democrats; negative margins favor Republicans. D+13 means a Democratic margin of 13 points; R+11 means a Republican margin of 11 points. Even means a rounded zero margin. All shifts are changes in percentage points.

Turnout = 100 × (Dem + Rep + Other) / estimated eligible population (CVAP). Nonvote is estimated eligible population minus valid votes for this election stage.

President and Senate district filters use 2024 congressional boundaries in every year. They estimate portions within that region. House maps use each race’s actual boundaries. Comparisons use the same area; statewide results are restricted to the House district when needed. House-to-House comparisons require matching boundaries. Differences can reflect demographic estimates, candidates and election stages, as well as time.

White college / non-college shares use ACS education among non-Hispanic White adults age 25+ as a proxy. CVAP means citizen voting-age population; it approximates eligibility, not registration. Hispanic is any race; other race categories are non-Hispanic.

Gray also hides demographics with less than 1% of the place’s CVAP, fewer than 25 estimated eligible people, or fewer than 10 valid votes (Dem + Rep + Other). Shifts must meet these thresholds in both elections. All voters is not masked. Uncheck the filter to explore smaller estimates.

Race notes identify coarse source geography, imputed margins and unmatched polling. Party totals cannot distinguish candidates in a same-party final. Runoffs and first-choice results remain separate stages.

Read the full source and map audit

2024 presidential electionEstimated demographic vote

MarginCounties

R+100EvenD+100

Red: Republican · Blue: Democratic · gray: unavailable / very small