2026 midterms

Democrats are 90% to win the House.

A joint model of every House, Senate and governor race, fitted to Kalshi and Polymarket order books.

Chance Democrats win each chamber, or hold more governorships than Republicans. Seat counts are medians.

R+20D+20 Every seat at equal size, coloured by projected margin; tap one to open it. Below: Democratic seats won, 218 for a majority.

Loading the latest market snapshot…

Also here

How each demographic group voted, estimated from counties down to Census block groups.

Partnership Spades in the browser. Bid with your partner and play against AI opponents.